Pivotal, Can’t Lose, Take a Swing, Finish the Job. That’s how I’d classify the final four games on Nebraska’s 2025 football schedule. In order, that’s USC, at UCLA, at Penn State and Iowa. It’s different than Acts I and II.

By November, all of our preseason perceptions of teams are pretty much washed away. The book is out, so to speak, on every team at this point. They’re all dealing with injuries. They all know if some high-ceiling sophomore they really needed to work out at a specific position has, and they all also know if their opponents’ high-ceiling sophomore has worked out, too. Winning in November almost always requires some degree of creative coaching, of problem solving.

The Huskers have struggled here in recent seasons, going 10-28 in November games since 2015. Matt Rhule is 1-7 over the final third of the regular season, worse, so far, than Scott Frost (5-14) who was worse than Mike Riley (4-7). As I wrote in last year’s Act III breakdown, nothing changes at Nebraska until that changes.

The preamble to this year’s three-act preview asked if Nebraska could go 3-1 three times. Based on the preseason SP+ ratings and actual win rates of favorites/underdogs of any size, the Huskers’ inferred win totals in Acts I and II penciled out to 2.9 on paper in each four-game chunk.

The unique thing about November, however, is you can typically crumple that paper and throw it away. It’s all about who, and what, you can put on the field at that point.

But it’s not paper-crumpling time yet, and using the same method as above, the Huskers’ inferred win total from this final, four-game chunk is just 1.7.1 It’s harder, and Nebraska hasn’t had a ton of success in these games recently.

So, what are NU’s chances of having a different November. Let’s dive in.